Soaring food prices caused by war in Ukraine have heightened the risk of famine, increasing pressure on producers of low-carbon crop-derived fuels and sparking a “food versus biofuel” debate.

Prior to Russia’s invasion, global biofuel production was at an all-time high. In the United States, the largest producer of biofuels, 36% of total corn production went to biofuels last year, while biodiesel accounted for 40% of soybean oil supplies.

But some food companies and policymakers are calling for a relaxation of mandates to blend biofuels into gasoline and diesel to boost global supplies of grains and vegetable oils.

“This is not the moment [for governments] encourage the conversion of food crops into energy through artificial policy incentives or mandatory blending targets,” said the Washington-based International Food Policy Research Institute.

Between them, Russia and Ukraine produce almost a fifth of the world’s corn and more than half of its sunflower oil, but these countries’ crop exports are at a fraction of pre-war levels. Hundreds of millions of people are at risk of “hunger and destitution” due to food shortages caused by war, the UN secretary-general warned last week.

The total amount of crops used each year for biofuels is equal to the calorie consumption of 1.9 billion people, according to data firm Gro Intelligence, highlighting the volume of agricultural products that could be diverted from the use of biofuel. energy if the food security crisis worsens.

Are biofuels causing problems in food markets?

Biofuels – ethanol made from corn and sugar cane and biodiesel made from vegetable oils including soybean oil and palm oil – have been blended into fuels since the early 2000s to increase supply energy and reduce the environmental impact of fossil fuels.

Biofuels were partly responsible for the last food crisis of 2007-08. Studies, including from the World Bank and the IMF, have suggested that the growth of biofuels contributed 20-50% to the rise in the price of maize during the crisis. Their growing use has been described as “a crime against humanity” by the UN rapporteur on food rights.

But biofuel producers argue they played a minimal role this time around. “Biofuels did not cause this crisis – either price or supply contraction,” said James Cogan of Ethanol Europe, an industry lobby group.

The high prices are unrelated to demand but reflect “erratic trading conditions and high energy prices”, he added. Reducing the production of biofuels “would not significantly alleviate the price crisis”.

Would limits on biofuels reduce world hunger?

According to the World Resources Institute, a Washington-based think tank, a 50% reduction in grain used for biofuels in Europe and the United States would offset all losses in Ukrainian exports of wheat, corn, barley and rye.

Although agricultural production has increased alongside the production of biofuels, which means that the amount available for the food supply has not decreased, the use of biofuels cannot increase exponentially without harming the environment. , the activists said.

“In a food insecure world, we need to think very critically about these limited resources as we try to feed the world and solve the climate crisis,” said Princeton University researcher Oliver James. who helped compile the WRI data.

Maik Marahrens, from the Brussels-based environmental campaign group Transport & Environnement, said that in the EU around 10,000 tonnes of wheat, or 15 million loaves of bread, are burned daily as ethanol in cars.

The ethanol industry says such comparisons are unfair. Most of the grain used to produce fuel is feed wheat, which is used for animal feed, rather than milling wheat, which is made into bread, the industry argued.

Biofuels executives said the amount of wheat used for biofuels was negligible – around 2% of the total crop, according to industry association UFOP.

“In this context, it’s a bit surreal to elevate wheat ethanol even to a topic of conversation in the current bread crisis,” said Eric Sievers, chief investment officer at ClonBio, which owns the world’s largest biorefinery. of European cereals, located in Hungary, as well as Ethanol Europe.

Would it be more harmful to limit biofuels?

Industry leaders say biofuels create efficiencies that feed animals and, indirectly, humans.

The industry is a major producer of animal feed since the process of turning grain into ethanol creates protein and fat by-products that are fed to chickens, cows and pigs.

Citing the impact on the EU only, Cogan said limits on biofuel production “would lead to loss of renewable energy, loss of energy independence, loss of jobs, loss of farm income security , an increase in fossil fuel imports, an increase in carbon emissions and an increase in soybean meal imports”. [for animal feed] of the Americas”.

Are biofuel policies changing?

In the EU, Belgium and Germany are considering relaxing biofuel blending mandates to ensure food safety.

The International Energy Agency has cut its biofuel growth forecast for this year by 20%, predicting that global demand will rise 5% from 2021 to 8.5 billion litres.

In the United States, where cheaper corn-based ethanol is the main biofuel, Washington has tried to rein in rising gasoline prices by allowing the higher blend level, normally reduced during the summer months. due to pollution problems, to continue temporarily.

But government incentives for biodiesel and lower global exports from Ukraine have added to competition for soybean oil, reducing supplies for US food groups.

“[Soyabean oil suppliers] can’t give me one [price] quote because they can’t take my stuff. There’s not enough oil for everyone,” said Ed Cinco, purchasing manager at Schwebel’s, an Ohio bakery.

While China has warned ethanol producers that it will “strictly control the processing of fuel ethanol from corn,” India is pushing ahead with its goals of increasing blending quotas. Prices for sugar, the country’s main bioethanol raw material, have risen less than other crops.

Although coordinated action on food security has moved rapidly up the agenda, there has been little debate on the limits of biofuels at the international level.

Instead, countries using biofuels must balance food security and sustainability with energy costs and independence, said Nicolas Denis, partner at McKinsey. Governments need to decide “what sustainable land use looks like, given the different priorities”, he added.